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posted by [personal profile] damerell at 02:17pm on 07/05/2015
So, I haven't voted yet, having three options that are each, in their own way, plausible. I will vote, I always do (although I think the "if you don't vote you can't complain" argument is entirely fatuous), but one of two of these three options is going to win anyway - if I can't decide between them, there isn't an argument for picking at random just to avoid getting the stinking Tory or the 'kipper.

I might vote for Julian Huppert, the incumbent, a Lib Dem; for Daniel Zeichner, Labour, who also might win; for Rupert Read, a Green.

Considered as individuals, Huppert is comfortably ahead: he's an excellent constituency MP, he's been about as bolshie as a Lib Dem MP in this dire coalition can be, he actually understands science, he's opposed to the erosion of civil liberties, he asks serious questions in Parliament and doesn't behave like a chimpanzee, he's one of the few candidates who won't hide if I wear an Open Rights Group t-shirt and assume an earnest expression. Plus, he rides a bicycle (and doesn't wear a magic plastic hat).

Zeichner is a bit of a cipher but basically appears to toe the party line.

Read has a habit of coming out with actively awful things.

Considered in terms of the overall election outcome, Zeichner is ahead. He'd, obviously, support Miliband as PM, and Miliband's not a stinking Tory.

Read won't win so voting for him is somewhere between Zeichner and Huppert.

Huppert's behind, since he might support Cameron as PM and almost certainly would not support Miliband. Ironically, it's a Lib Dem leaflet (a false-flag blue one for Tory voters) that put me on this cusp of indecision rather than voting for Huppert because he's personally good.

Considered in terms of parties, I prefer the Green Party - indeed, I'm _in_ the Green Party - and thanks to our insane electoral system, to get a Green MP in the future we probably have to vote for one now just to signal to each other that we exist.

The Lib Dems are generally OK, notwithstanding the Faustian pact with the Tories; strong on civil liberties, and also want to change the insane electoral system.

Labour are... well, New Labour were practically crypto-Thatcherites and Old Labour aren't on the ballot. I don't expect them to be any better on civil liberties, and in the runup to the election they've been coming out with a lot of sub-Tory crap about immigration and "hard-working families". They're bottom of this list - they're better than the Tories, but that's a pretty low bar.

Maybe I'll take a d12 into the booth... and if you can get to it before I'm there, I'm actively soliciting anything that might tip the balance.
There are 13 comments on this entry. (Reply.)
ptc24: (Default)
posted by [personal profile] ptc24 at 02:01pm on 07/05/2015
Yeah, that leaflet. I'll see if I still feel pissed off about it when I have the ballot paper in my hand.
damerell: NetHack. (Default)
posted by [personal profile] damerell at 02:03pm on 07/05/2015
I suppose ultimately I'm not pissed off about it because it provided me with useful decision-making material... just not how the person who wrote it hoped.
wildeabandon: photo of me with wavy hair and gold lipstick (Default)
posted by [personal profile] wildeabandon at 02:14pm on 07/05/2015
I'm not convinced by the idea that the LDs would be unlikely to support Miliband. It might just be that because my social circle skews left, so do the rest of the LDs I know, but certainly my impression there is that a coalition/other kind of deal with Labour would be preferable to the party members than another one with the Tories.

The electoral maths also suggests that it's very unlikely that Tories & Lib Dems will be able to command a majority between the two parties, and I really can't see us going into any kind of deal involving UKIP or the DUP.
damerell: NetHack. (Default)
posted by [personal profile] damerell at 02:45pm on 07/05/2015
But how many of the LDs you know were enthusiastic about the 2010 Faustian pact? Me neither.

(Presumably, also, the Tories can do the same projections, and yet they're propping up Clegg in Sheffield (not just individuals, but the Murdoch papers) - mind you, I suppose the alternative there is definitely-Labour).
wildeabandon: photo of me with wavy hair and gold lipstick (Default)
posted by [personal profile] wildeabandon at 02:55pm on 07/05/2015
Enthusiastic no, but quite a lot of them supported it in a "least bad option" kind of way. I guess the question is whether there's been an actual shift rightwards since then, or if it just looks that way because of what's needed to be done to keep the coalition stable.
rmc28: Rachel smiling against background of trees, with newly-cut short hair (Default)
posted by [personal profile] rmc28 at 03:29pm on 07/05/2015
It depends what gets offered, bearing in mind any coalition deal involving libdems has to get past the voting reps in the party conference (pretty much the activist base - I've been a voting rep but am not currently).

Jennie Rigg summarises it well here: http://miss-s-b.dreamwidth.org/1629094.html

There's no intrinsic reason for LDs to prefer Cameron to Miliband - it depends on the numbers and the offer. Five years ago the Conservatives put effort into making an offer LDs could support and Labour didn't.

Having gone through the full five years of that deal, a new one would have to be considerably better for Julian to be "propping up" anyone.

rmc28: Rachel smiling against background of trees, with newly-cut short hair (Default)
posted by [personal profile] rmc28 at 03:31pm on 07/05/2015
Assuming J gets elected, which I don't.
damerell: NetHack. (Default)
posted by [personal profile] damerell at 03:37pm on 07/05/2015
Mmm. But from my point of view, that still puts Zeichner (will definitely support someone who's not Cameron) ahead of Huppert (unlikely to support either option) - from the "outcome this election" POV.
kaberett: Overlaid Mars & Venus symbols, with Swiss Army knife tools at other positions around the central circle. (Default)
posted by [personal profile] kaberett at 02:27pm on 07/05/2015
Keeping Julian in Parliament is actively positive for me; he's vigourously supported trans* & particularly non-binary rights & representation, with every indication that he's going to keep doing it.
damerell: NetHack. (Default)
posted by [personal profile] damerell at 02:37pm on 07/05/2015
That's "as an individual MP, he's brilliant", though, isn't it?
liv: cast iron sign showing etiolated couple drinking tea together (argument)
posted by [personal profile] liv at 02:37pm on 07/05/2015
Much sympathy. It really is hard to decide between the three options. I do wish that Huppert's campaign team hadn't stooped to active dishonesty, and I fear they'll lose more votes from principled pro-Julian voters than they'll gain from natural Tories voting tactically. It's both evil and a really foolish gamble to campaign like that. Bah.
damerell: NetHack. (Default)
posted by [personal profile] damerell at 02:42pm on 07/05/2015
I think my trouble with it is that it may be honest. I don't much like porkies in election leaflets, but they are part of the landscape, like flies or rain; but that Huppert might prop up Cameron, that's a real problem.
jack: (Default)
posted by [personal profile] jack at 02:52pm on 07/05/2015
Yeah, I felt in about the same place, and found it really hard to decide.


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